Pre-Primary Election Analysis

This is my analysis of the primary races. I have used the same format as the MassResistance election analysis to make it easy to compare. I am only analyzing the primary races here. I will re-evaluate these races after the primary election. (Green means they are pro-gay rights. Red means they are anti-gay rights.) The projected winners are my own opinions and do not reflect the opinions of any organizations.

INCUMBENTS challenged in primaries (14 races):
If the incumbent rep is good and they are likely to be re-elected I will call it a "save". If the incumbent rep is good and they are likely to lose to a bad candidate I will call it a "lose". If the incumbent rep is bad and they are likely to lose to a good candidate I will call it a "pick-up". If the incumbent rep is bad and they are likely to be re-elected I will call it as "no change".

House - 12th Essex (Peabody)
D - Joyce Spiliotis, 85 Gardner St., Peabody
D - Sean R. Fitzgerald, 6 Elaine Ave., Peabody
Projected Winner: Joyce Spiliotis - NO CHANGE

House - 5th Suffolk (Boston/Dorchester)
D - Marie St. Fleur, 45 Hartford St., Boston
D - Severiano Cruz, 38 Dacia St., Boston
D - Roy Owens, 6 Woodville St., Boston
Projected Winner: Marie St. Fleur - SAVE

House - 10th Worcester (Milford/Mendon/Hopedale)
D - Marie J. Parente, 13 Reagan Rd., Milford
D - John V. Fernandes, 320 Purchase St., Milford
Projected Winner: Marie Parente - NO CHANGE

House - 12th Norfolk (Norwood/Walpole)
D - John H. Rogers, 194 Plantation Cir., Norwood
D - Leah C. O'Leary, 13 Devon Rd., Norwood
Projected Winner: John Rogers - SAVE (Even though Rogers now support marriage equality he is still not very queer friendly. I would love to see O'Leary win, but it just isn't going to happen.)

House - 11th Hampden (Springfield)
D - Benjamin Swan, 837 State St., Springfield
D - Larry Lawson, 484 Hancock St., Springfield
D - Norman W. Oliver, 377 St. James Ave., Springfield
Projected Winner: Ben Swan - SAVE

House - 13th Bristol (New Bedford)
D - Antonio F.D. Cabral, 212 Maple St., New Bedford
D - Brian K. Gomes, 66 Clara St., New Bedford
Projected Winner: Antonio Cabral - SAVE

House - 16th Worcester (Worcester)
D - John P. Fresolo, 25 Dolly Dr., Worcester
D - Melissa J. Murgo, 179 Delmont Ave., Worcester
Projected Winner: John Fresolo - NO CHANGE (I would love to be wrong about this one. If Melissa Murgo really works at it, she does have a chance here.)

House - 8th Worcester (Webster/Uxbridge/Dudly)
D - Paul Kujawski, 71 Klebart Ave., Webster
D - Mark G. Dowgiewicz, 16 Reid Smith Cove Rd., Webster
Projected Winner: Paul Kujawski - NO CHANGE

House - 9th Essex (Lynn/Saugus/Lynnfield)
D - Mark V. Falzone, 9 Broadway, Saugus
D - Sean P. Grant, 485 Central St., Saugus
Projected Winner: Mark Falzone - SAVE

House - 7th Bristol (Fall River)
D - Robert Correia, 1290 Plymouth Ave., Fall River
D - Kevin Aguiar, 48 Coral St., Fall River
D - John J. Rodrigues, 36 Lenox St., Fall River
Projected Winner: Robert Correia - NO CHANGE

House - 4th Berkshire (Pittsfield/Lenox)
D - William "Smitty" Pignatelli, 339 Housatonic St., Lenox
D - Patrick Long, 84 Alford Rd., Great Barrington
Projected Winner: William “Smitty” Pignatelli - SAVE

Senate - First Worcester (Worcester/Boylston/Holden)
D - Harriette L. Chandler, 97 Aylesbury Rd., Worcester
D - Deirdre Healy, 963 Pleasant St., Worcester
Projected Winner: Harriette Chandler - SAVE

Senate - Fourth Middlesex (Arlington/Billerica/Burlington)
D - Robert A. Havern, III, 35 Bartlett Ave., Arlington
D - Joanna Gonsalves, 16 Lexington St., Woburn
Projected Winner: Robert Havern - SAVE

Senate - Second Suffolk (Boston)
D - Dianne Wilkerson, Boston (write-in candidate)
D - Sonia Chang-Diaz, Boston (write-in candidate)
R and D - Samiyah Diaz, Boston (write-in candidate)
Projected Winner: Dianne Wilkerson - SAVE (This is a very interesting race. The incumbent, Dianne Wilkerson, did not collect enough signatures to get her name on the ballot. Her biggest opponent, Sonia Chang-Diaz, only decided to run for the seat when she saw that Wilkerson didn't get on the ballot. Therefore, all three candidates are waging sticker campaigns. To top it off, Samiyah is a Republican who already has her name on the Republican ballot. She is joining the other two candidates in the Democratic primary running a sticker campaign in hopes of getting her name in both the Republican and Democrat spot on the November ballot. Even though all cadidates are pro-equality, it is crucial that we protect Dianne as one of our greatest and most powerful allies in the State House.)


OPEN SEATS - Incumbents not running again (12 races):
This is where we can really pick up some votes. I will mark the out-going reps as either red or green so you can see where we have a chance up picking up votes. If the out-going rep is good and we will likely elect a good candidate, I will call it a "save". If the out-going rep is good and we will likely elect a bad candidate, I will call it a "lose". If the out-going rep is bad and we will likely elect a good candidate to replace them, I will call it a "pick-up". If the out-going rep is bad and we will likely elect another bad candidate, I will call it as "no change".

House - 15th Essex ( Methuen)
OUT-GOING: Rep. Arthur Broadhurst (D)
D - Linda Dean Campbell, 42 Sugar Pine Ln., Methuen
D - Edward F. Curran, 7 Cypress Ave., Methuen
D - Christopher DiBella, 4 Bumpy Ln., Methuen
D - Michael W. Hennessy, 9 Stevens St., Methuen
Projected Winner: Christopher DiBella - SAVE (Tough to call. I am hoping it is DiBella. My second guess would be Linda Dean Campbell)

House - 3rd Hampden (Agawam)
OUT-GOING: Rep. Daniel Keenan (D)
D - Carley R. Johnson, Jr., 135 Country Rd., Agawam
D - Joseph Mineo, 33 Maple Meadows Ln., Agawam
D - Rosemary Sandlin, 90 Granger Dr., Agawam
Projected Winner: Rosemary Sandlin - SAVE

House - 28th Middlesex (Everett/Malden)
OUT-GOING: Rep. Ed Connolly - deceased (D)
D - Frank Nuzzo, Jr., 20 Evelyn Rd., Everett
D - Stephen Stat Smith, 53 Clarence St., Everett
D - Rosemary Miller (write-in candidate)
Projected Winner: Stat Smith - PICK-UP

House - 6th Suffolk (Mattapan/Roxbury)
OUTGOING: Rep. Shirley Owens-Hicks (D)
D - Willie Mae Allen, 85 Deering Rd., Boston
D - William R. Celester, Sr., 115 Hazleton St., Boston
Projected Winner: I have no idea. They are both good on our issues. - PICK-UP

House - 6th Worcester (Southbridge/Charlton/Spencer)
OUT-GOING: Rep. Mark Carron (D)
D - Geraldo Alicea, 13 Deer Run, Charlton
D - Patrick J. Driscoll, 35 Donnelly Rd., Spencer (openly gay)
D - Scott S. Lazo, 36 Ellis Rd., Southbridge
D - Joanne E. Powell, 15 Dodge Ln., Charlton
D - Karen A. Spiewak, 90 Osgood Rd., Charlton
Projected Winner: Joanne Powell - NO CHANGE (This one is very tough to call. I would love to see Pat Driscoll win, but his campaign is not very strong. I really hope that I am wrong about this one.)

House - 12th Hampden (Springfield/Wilbraham)
OUT-GOING: Rep. Gale Candaras (D)
D - Angelo J. Puppolo, Jr., 44 South Shore Dr., Springfield
D - Jim Driscoll, East Longmeadow (write-in candidate)
Projected Winner: Angelo Puppolo - NO CHANGE (The write-in candidate does have a small chance here. If he turns his campaign around in the next two weeks we could see a pick-up. This is not likely though.)

House - 3rd Worcester (Fitchburg)
OUT-GOING: Rep. Emile Goguen (D)
D - Stephen L. DiNatale, 150 Walton St., Fitchburg
D - David P. Leblanc, 30 Silver St., Fitchburg
D - Mary H. Whitney, 12 Pine St., Fitchburg
Projected Winner: Stephen DiNatale - PICK-UP

House - 1st Bristol (Foxboroug0h/Mansfield/Norton)
OUT-GOING: Rep. Virginia Coppola (R)
D - Matthew J. Donovan, 101 M Chestnut St., Foxborough
D - Paul R. Feeney, 182 North St., Foxborough
D - Claire B. Naughton, 4 Everett Ln., Foxborough
Projected Winner: Clair Naughton - PICK UP

House - 4th Barnstable (Cape Cod)
OUT-GOING: Rep. Shirley Gomes (R)
D - Ronald J. Bergstrom, 1347 Old Queen Anne Rd., Chatham
D - Raymond C. Gottwald, 38 Huckleberry Path, Harwich (openly gay)
D - Sarah K. Peake, 7 Center St., Provincetown (openly gay)
R - Andrew G. Buckley, 202 Lime Hill Rd., Chatham
R - Donald F. Howell, 14 Haskell Ln., Harwich
R - Aaron R. Maloy, 81A Finlay Rd., Orleans (openly gay)
Projected Winner in the Democratic Primary: Sarah Peake - PICK-UP
Projected Winner in the Republican Primary: Don Howell - PICK-UP (Howell is pro-equality and pro-choice. This race is very interesting. There are three openly gay candidates. However, one of the gay candidates is republican that is anti-gay, anti-equality and anti-choice.)

House - 4th Bristol (Rehoboth/Seekonk)
OUT-GOING: Rep. Philip Travis (D)
D - Nicholas D. Bernier, 494 Sharps Lot Rd., Swansea
D - Steven J. D'Amico, 81 Briarwood Dr., Seekonk
D - Robert A. Marquis, 298 Vinnicum Rd., Swansea
D - John W. Whelan, 15 Woodward Ave., Seekonk
Projected Winner: Steve D’Amico - PICK UP

Senate - Berkshire, Hampshire & Franklin (Pittsfield/North Adams)
OUTGOING: Sen. Andrea Nuciforo (D)
D - Benjamin Brackett Downing, 123 Pomeroy Ave., Pittsfield
D - Christopher Hodgkins, 100 Franklin St., Lee
D - Helen Sharron, 343 Huntington Rd., Worthington
D - Margaret Johnson Ware, 24 Moorland St., Williamstown
D - John T. Zelazo, 22 Summit Ave., Adams
Projected Winner: No matter who wins: - SAVE (I don't know anything about this race but I would like to see Christopher Hodgkins win.)

Senate - First Hampden & Hampshire (Springfield/East Longmeadow)
OUT-GOING: Sen. Brian Lees (R)
D - Brian Michael Ashe, 107 Belleclaire Ave., Longmeadow
D - Rep. Gale D. Candaras, 643 Tinkham Rd., Wilbraham
D - Rosemarie Mazza-Moriarty, 95 Osborne Ter., Springfield
Projected Winner: Gale Candaras - LOSE (This is considered a lose because Candaras voted against us when she was in the House. However, we might be able to convince her to be with us in the future. Hopefully this will end up being a save.)

The result of the primary races will look something like this:

We will SAVE 12 pro-equality incumbents
We will see NO CHANGE in 7 anti-equality seats
We will PICK-UP 6 pro-equality seats previously held by anti-equality reps (This is HUGE!)
We will likely LOSE 1 seat to an anti-equality legislator (who we might be able to switch!)

A few of the races listed above are too close to call, so I am making an educated guess. Of course the final numbers above are subject to change.

I will use this same page to evaluate the results of the primary election...so stay tuned!